10/31/25

Time-Series Modeling of High-Resolution Radio Spectra

Dr. Taylor presents a modeling technique to characterize high-resolution radio spectra based on ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) modeling from statistical time series analysis. ARIMA isolates the dependence of a spectrum's shape upon both its signal and structured noise components, making fewer assumptions about a spectrum's velocity structure than standard Gaussian component fitting, and is intended to serve as a complement to the latter.

Structural dependence modeling can: improve summary moment calculations, provide alternative approaches to signal noise estimation (which can be modeled channel-wise if desired), and help characterize the provenance of any observed structure in a cube's spectra (as signal, structured noise, or white noise).

ARIMA modeling is computationally lightweight, backed by statistical theory and, as a first step to an analytical pipeline, can inform further downstream tasks such as identifying when Gaussian component fitting is appropriate.

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